Programming Alert: Join
, , and me for another episode of Over It!: Coffee and Conversation tomorrow at 10 AM ET. And if you missed it yesterday, please click on the link above to watch Michelle’s and my Emergency Substack Live : Stefanik Gets Shivved.With Trump, always look at what he does, not what he says. And yesterday was Exhibit A in the rhetoric not matching the reality.
Some background is in order:
On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone defeated Republican Josh Parsons to win a Pennsylvania state senate seat in a district that Trump won by a 15-point margin less than five months ago. Lancaster County, which is part of the district, last sent a Democrat to the state senate in the 19th century.
Next Tuesday, voters go to the polls in two special congressional elections in Florida. Under normal circumstances, these would not be difficult seats for Republicans to win. Both are in ruby-red districts and both were represented by MAGA stalwarts Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz until their resignations.
But these are not ordinary times and it is possible that Democrats could score an upset in one or both districts next week. Remember, Democrats need to pick up just three seats for Hakeem Jeffries to get the Speaker’s gavel from Mike Johnson.
Which brings us to the third congressional seat that was up for grabs this year. Rep. Elise Stefanik, who represents New York’s North Country, was nominated to be the United States ambassador to the United Nations as soon as Trump took office. Though she never resigned her seat, she recently went on a farewell tour of her district and, according to The New York Times, had “spent the past week on Instagram posting a nostalgic retrospective of her time in Congress as she prepared for her tenure there to end.”
In fact, Stefanik was so primed to join the Trump Administration that she participated in the first cabinet meeting and sat with the cabinet at the president’s recent address to Congress.
Stefanik’s nomination was expected to move forward at long last after next Tuesday’s Florida elections, which Republicans should have been confident of winning under normal circumstances. For that matter, the election to replace Stefanik, which would have been called within 90 days of her resignation, should have been a slam dunk for the GOP too. Last November, she won the district by over 24 points, while Trump won it by 21 points.
But yesterday, Trump pulled Stefanik’s nomination and sent her back to the House. On Truth Social, he all but acknowledged that he was panicking about losing her seat — and with it the House majority.
“With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The people love Elise, and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations. Therefore, Elise will stay in Congress, rejoin the House Leadership Team, and continue to fight for our amazing American People.”
Why would Trump not wait to see the outcome of the Florida elections next week before making up his mind about this, you might ask? Maybe it’s because he wants to save face when Republicans either lose or come close, which would send a powerful message about Trump’s falling popularity. Maybe it’s because losing a solid-red Pennsylvania legislative seat on Tuesday was a wake-up call.
Or maybe it’s because he and Johnson know that George Soros is not paying actors to show up to Republican town halls and pretend to be protesters, that their Project 2025 agenda really is scaring the bejeezus out of Americans, irrespective of their voting history.
The lies and bravado with which they gin up the MAGA base is one thing. But their actions tell the tale. They are running scared.
This is not to say that they are going to change course. They are hell-bent on dismantling our democracy and harming our country. But while we still have democratic elections, voters can take out their frustrations at the polls. And judging by his panic, even Trump understands that voters today are deeply unhappy.
Imagine if Democrats had picked up all three of these seats (or even if they pick up two in Florida next week and are somehow able to flip one more before 2027). Democrats can finally stop much of Trump’s agenda in its tracks and — most crucially — investigate the complete and utter corruption of our Constitution and democratic norms by the most lawless Administration in history.
For all his bluster, Trump is terrified of this outcome. And because he is scared, Elise Stefanik is paying the price of going back to her district with her tail tucked between her legs.
You can hear more from me about this today on MSNBC at 2 PM ET.
Further Reading:
Spotlight PA: Democrat James Malone wins Pa. Senate race in Trump +15 district, a major upset
CNN: Republicans grow concerned about Trump’s handpicked candidate in Florida special election
Newsweek: Democrats' Chances of Flipping House Seat Trump Won by 30 Points: Poll
New York Times: Trump Asks Stefanik to Withdraw Bid to Be U.N. Ambassador
Politico: Stefanik’s withdrawal suggests Republicans are sweating their thin margins
NBC News: GOP 'anxiety' persists ahead of Florida special elections in Trump territory
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