April 13: Week in Review

Trump to his base: drop dead

Greetings from Donald Trump’s home state of Florida, where I am spending a few days visiting family. I have successfully avoided theme parks for most of my adult life. Today, my luck runs out.

Speaking of Florida, foreign tourism is cratering in Orlando since the Trump Administration decided to start pulling random foreigners aside at border crossings and locking them up on. a whim. Not surprisingly, no one coming here for a vacation wants to risk that happening to them. People from around the world are boycotting trips to Disney, SeaWorld, Universal and other theme parks in the area. Check out this chart and remember that tourism is Florida’s biggest industry.

It’s not just Florida. Foreign tourism is down all across the United States. The message Trump has sent the world is that he is building a fortress around the nation and that he disdains them and their governments. If they are particularly unlucky, he will lock them up like criminals without explaining why. Message received.

Europeans in particular are boycotting the United States.

Trump’s disdain towards Europe and most of the rest of the world has real consequences for our own bottom line. International tourists contribute $155 billion in U.S. travel spending every year. That number appears to be in precipitous decline now.

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Trump To His Base: Drop Dead

There was a fascinating study conducted last year that inadvertently spelled out what could have awaited long-distressed areas around the country — had they only not voted for Trump last November.

During the Biden Administration, distressed areas saw accelerated job growth, compared with the least distressed counties. According to the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research:

First, for the most distressed counties, job growth trends have become more favorable since 2019, compared to the 2001–2007 and 2007–2019 periods. The timing of this recent improvement is consistent with a possible influence of recent federal policies. Second, for the least distressed counties, job growth trends have become less favorable in post-2019 growth and 2007–2019 growth compared to the 2001–2007 period. The timing suggests these trends are probably due not to recent federal policies but rather to other economic forces such as rising costs in some less distressed counties. Third, similar trends are also evident for industry groups such as manufacturing and high-tech, again industries which recently have been targeted by federal policies. Fourth, these recent trends toward greater job growth in more distressed counties are modest in size, in the sense that they are insufficient to significantly lower employment rate gaps between more distressed counties and the national average.

The analysis did not definitively conclude that public policy led to these gains but it stands to reason that it did. The Biden Administration invested heavily in distressed areas. As the report notes:

From the August 2022 passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided credits for clean energy investments, until June 2022, announced investment in “Energy Communities” — communities adjudged to be distressed due for example to a coal mine closure, and eligible for extra tax credits—has been relatively greater compared to the period from 2018 until July 2022. In addition, 70–86 percent of post-IRA clean energy investments have been in counties that are “above average” in distress, with the percentage fluctuating on various county distress measures. There is some evidence that this percentage is somewhat greater from August 2022 until June 2023 than it was in the 2018 to July 2022 period: the percentage of announced investment going to low-income counties rose from 68 to 78 percent.

These areas can say goodbye to all that, now that Trump’s tariffs have kicked in and Republicans on the Hill are attempting to extend tax cuts that skew disproportionately to the wealthy. Amidst a revolt from fiscal hawks in the House Republican conference, Speaker Mike Johnson assured his members that if he does not produce at least $1.5 trillion in budget cuts when the final bill goes to Trump’s desk, they can remove him from the speakership. Where do you think that money will come from? Certainly not from Elon Musk’s tax breaks and federal government contracts. It’s the investments in the most economically distressed areas that will be cut.

Instead, the average American family — including those living in areas that are now just recovering from job losses over the last several decades — will pay much more to survive. According to the Budget Lab at Yale University, the unemployment rate will be higher by the end of this year as a result of these tariffs. In the short run, clothing prices will skyrocket by 64%. Price hikes will cost the average American family $4,700.

Is this what you voted for, America?

Further Reading:

Photo by Christin Hume on Unsplash

Newsweek: British Tourist Detained by ICE for 19 Days Warns Against All US Travel

The Guardian: I’m the Canadian who was detained by Ice for two weeks. It felt like I had been kidnapped

U.S Travel Association: Economic Impact of the Travel Industry

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research: Place Distress and Job Growth: Are Recent Job Growth Trends Significantly More Favorable for Distressed Counties?

Politico: Johnson to budget holdouts: Remove me if I don’t keep my promises

The Budget Lab at Yale University: The Fiscal and Economic Effects of the Revised April 9 Tariffs

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“When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that. We're going to bring those prices way down." - Donald Trump, Meet the Press, December 8, 2024.

Below is the most recently available national data on the average price of apples, bacon, and eggs.

Apples (Honeycrisp, per pound): $2.80 (up from $2.31 when Biden left office)

Bacon (sliced, per pound): $6.978 (March, 2025, up from $6.915 in December, 2024, which was Biden’s last full month in office)

Eggs (Grade A, Large, per dozen): $6.23 (March, 2025, up from $4.15 in December, 2024, which was Biden’s last full month in office)

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Salty Monday:

Salty Tuesday:

Salty Wednesday:

Salty Thursday:

Salty Friday:

Bonus Content:

NBC News

On Tuesday, I went on NBC News to discuss Trump’s tariffs with two other panelists. At the end, Llamas asked us a yes/or no lightening round question about whether Trump would back off from his insane tariff plan. I said yes (everyone else disagreed). The very next day, Trump backed off, for now.

It wasn’t hard to figure out, if you understand Trump’s go-to Boiling Frog play (which I wrote about in Thursday’s newsletter). A zebra doesn’t change its stripes and a narcissist who has run the same play for more than 50 years doesn’t change his either. We ignore it at our own peril.

Over It! Wednesdays:

If you missed this week’s episode of Over It! this week, please catch it here.

Pax Americana Thursdays:

Olga and I had a lot to get through this week, including some questions about why the Trump family could repeatedly come and go through the Iron Curtain during the Cold War when no one else could. If you missed it, watch it below:

Chag and a blessed Palm Sunday to everyone who celebrates. To everyone else, happy Spring.

Stay Salty!

Julie