America Has Turned on Donald Trump
It's getting bad for Trump and the GOP
New administrations have honeymoon periods. Some last longer than others but, with the sole exception of Donald Trump in his first term, every post-war president has had a positive job approval rating in the first hundred days of his administration.
And then there’s Trump. As he nears his first hundred days back in the Oval Office, his numbers are cratering. Poll after poll shows him underwater, not just on his job approval but across the board on his handling of nearly every issue across the board.
A recent Pew survey has Trump’s job approval upside down at 59% disapproving to 40% approving. A majority of Americans disapprove of his tariff hikes, his cuts to government funding and programs, and his use of executive orders to govern. The vast majority really hates the notion that he might continue to ignore court orders. From Pew:
78% say the Trump administration should have to follow a federal court’s ruling, rising to 88% if the Supreme Court were to issue the ruling.
91% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans say the administration would need to stop an action if a federal court ruled it illegal, rising to 95% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans for a Supreme Court ruling.
The numbers are just as bad for Trump in the new Reuters/Ipsos poll. His job approval is underwater at 42-53% and the trend over the last five weeks is getting worse. Just 37% approve of his handling of the economy, with majorities disapproving. Just 45% approve of his handling of immigration, with 46% disapproving. On both the economy and immigration, his numbers have been steadily eroding for the last five weeks. Remember, these are the two issues on which Trump campaigned hardest last year.
Other polls show the same downward trends for the president. The Economist/YouGov tracker has his job approvals underwater at 41-54%. And here’s the key: at the start of his term, 91% of Republicans approved of his job performance. Today, just 74% do. Trump is underwater with everyone: men, women, Black, Latino and white voters, and with voters in every single age demographic and income bracket.
The YouGov poll has him upside down on his handling of the economy with every single cohort. He is underwater on immigration with everyone except men, voters over 45 and those earning less than $50,000 per year, though even with those groups, he is barely breaking even. He is underwater on his handling of foreign policy, national security, education, crime, criminal justice reform and inflation, where he is getting clobbered by everyone except Republicans.
There’s more. A new Fox News poll shows Trump underwater on every single issue except border security (which is different from immigration, where he is also underwater). His overall job approval rating stands at 44-55%.
What does all this mean for the future? Trump is not particularly swayed by polls, which he calls fake when they don’t go his way. The only approvals he cares about are from people he considers his peers, which is why he is wavering on his ridiculous tariff plan after a Come to Jesus Oval Office visit from executives at Walmart, Target and Home Depot. According to Axios:
The CEOs of three of the nation's biggest retailers — Walmart, Target and Home Depot — privately warned him that his tariff and trade policy could disrupt supply chains, raise prices and empty shelves, according to sources familiar with the meeting.
"The big box CEOs flat out told him [Trump] the prices aren't going up, they're steady right now, but they will go up. And this wasn't about food. But he was told that shelves will be empty," an administration official familiar with the meeting told Axios.
Another official briefed on the meeting said the CEOs told Trump disruptions could become noticeable in two weeks.
(It’s nice that these executives gave it the old college try but it won’t much matter in restoring stability to a reeling global economy. Whatever Trump does now to backtrack on tariffs will be too late, because he has shown himself to be totally inconsistent and unpredictable. This is no way to run a country.)
Where Trump’s sinking numbers matter is with respect to congressional Republicans. The data shows that Trump still has incredibly strong — indeed, unshakable — support from the Republican base. With everyone else, he is in deep trouble. Republicans in all but the reddest districts have to decide whether they want to win their primaries and fall on the sword for Trump in a general election or whether they want to get together, get a backbone and stand up to Trump’s madness now.
These numbers also matter with respect to congressional Democrats. The next time some consultant laments that Democrats are spending too much time talking about the rendition of migrants to El Salvador because voters agree with Trump on immigration, remind them that the data no longer bears this out. In fact, Democrats should oppose Trump on every issue, at every turn — because the American people do. Now is the time to press the gas peddle.
There are two ways that Trump can go: he can either continue to cave in the face of economic catastrophe, as he did in the Oval Office on Tuesday when he mentioned that his self-imposed 145% tariff is “very high and it won’t be that high.” Markets will likely rise on this news but while this volatility may be good for traders on Wall Street, it’s not good for Main Street. The constant uncertainty is the hallmark of Trump’s entire existence and that uncertainty is the kiss of death for businesses and consumers alike. Consumers have not yet felt the true cost of Trump’s tariffs. That will come in the next weeks and months, as the supply chain breaks down and prices go up. Back to school shopping will be painful, no matter what signals Trump sends the markets now.
Or there is the other way, the way that other dictators address pushback from their people. As his numbers continue to drop, Trump will become even most dangerous. There is only one method dictators use in dealing with a public that despises them and that is by getting rid of those who complain. That’s why Vladimir Putin has jailed Russians who so much as click “like” on a social media post critical of government policy. If opinion polls don’t reflect good news for you, then — boom — get rid of opinion.
We are in a race against time. We have to make it clear to Trump that we will not submit quietly, that it is he who has to change and not us. Regular Americans must provide courage for Democratic officials and a warning for Republican officials. Public sentiment is with us. Now we must harness it to restore our democracy as best we can.
Just a reminder that I am running a 15%-off sale on paid annual subscriptions and Founding Member plans this week.
Please support independent journalism and my efforts to expand Salty Politics by investigating the critical stories that legacy media refuses to cover.
The American Presidency Project: Presidential Job Approval Ratings Following the First 100 Days
The Guardian: Trump’s defiance of court orders is ‘testing the fences’ of the rule of law
Pew Research Center: Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval as He Nears 100 Days
Reuters: What is Donald Trump’s approval rating?
The Economist/YouGov Poll: The Economist/YouGov Poll
Fox News: Fox News Poll: The first 100 days of President Trump’s second term
Axios: Trump softens tariff tone amid empty shelves warning, market slump
CNN: Trump says China tariffs will ‘come down substantially,’ hinting at potential U-turn
CBS News: Dozens in Russia imprisoned for social media "likes," reposts
Thank you, Julie, for putting the factual statistical indicators up front.
The truth is that it is neither possible nor neccessary to somehow get people who voted for Trump to see, accept and openly admit that they were conned by a lying sociopathic malignant narcissist that never did give a damn about them.
It has just been a bit more than three months since Trump took power and he has already mismanaged to screw up our nation and the whole world in ways that will result in massive human suffering, financial destruction, and death.
There is already no doubt that if Harris was running against Trump now...she would win. Obviously, that's not possible (but if we had a parliamentary democracy, new elections could be called...but that's another topic).
Meanwhile, it's up to the Democratic party to become far more aggressively progressive and politically effective in holding all Republicans' feet to the hellish fires of Toxic Trumpism that are burning down all that is good and decent.
What is needed is a massive landslide in November 2026 that wins 30 seat majorities in the House and at *least* 55 progressive Democrats taking the Senate.
In that ideal Grand Slam scenario, Impeachment, a trial, and removal of both Trump and Vance become possible, leading to a Democratic Speaker of the House becoming POTUS. (Yes we can find enough Republican Senators to put the nation ahead of loyalty to a sick dangerous administration).
Let's go for it!!!
Don't forget the judiciary. I know that everyone on this site is still wailing about that ruling last year, but virtually all decisions since January 20 have gone against tRump at all levels. Even SCOTUS is already curbing their previous "Get Out of Jail Free" ruling by requiring him to abide by the law, even a 225-year-old law that required due process.
The legal process takes time to work, but until 2026 it is the only avenue open. Unless tRump continues to self-destruct to the point that even a handful of congressional R's desert him due to pressure from back home.